Notre Dame vs. SMU Game Preview & Quick Pick

Quick Pick: SMU -2.5

Notre Dame looks to protect home court as a 2.5-point underdog against SMU in this ACC matchup. The Fighting Irish have been strong in South Bend (8-4 SU at home) but will be without starting guard Matt Allocco, one of their best shooters (46.3% from three). Meanwhile, SMU enters at 19-6 overall (5-2 away) and boasts one of the most efficient scoring teams in the country.

The Mustangs may be without starting point guard Kevin Miller (GTD) and will be missing big man Yohan Traore, impacting their depth. However, SMU’s scoring efficiency, rebounding dominance, and defensive presence still make them the better team in this matchup.

Key Metrics Breakdown

Offensive Matchup

SMU has an explosive offense, ranking 24th in scoring (82.1 PPG), 43rd in FG% (47.8%), and 18th in three-point percentage (38.2%). The Mustangs thrive in transition and move the ball well, but Miller’s potential absence would hurt their ball-handling and playmaking.

Notre Dame’s offense is limited without Allocco, who was their best three-point shooter (46.3%) and played 33.6 MPG. The Irish already ranked just 201st in scoring (73.2 PPG), and losing their best perimeter threat could make scoring even tougher.

Rebounding Battle

SMU has a clear rebounding edge, ranking 37th in total rebounds (35.4 RPG) and 40th in defensive rebounding (25.0 DREB per game). Notre Dame is 181st in total rebounds (32.0 RPG) and struggles to secure second-chance points.

With Yohan Traore out, SMU loses some frontcourt depth, but their starters should still control the glass against a weak rebounding Irish squad.

Defensive Matchup

SMU is a strong defensive team, ranking 28th in FG% allowed (40.2%). If Kevin Miller is out, their perimeter defense (1.6 SPG) may take a slight hit, but Notre Dame missing Allocco’s shooting is a bigger concern.

Notre Dame’s defense is average at best (175th in PPG allowed, 71.4 PPG), and while they defend the perimeter well (31.8% 3P allowed, 86th), SMU’s ability to score inside and out will be tough to contain.

Betting Analysis & Key Trends

SMU on the Road: 5-2 SU

Notre Dame at Home: 8-4 SU

SMU’s Scoring Edge: 24th in PPG (82.1) vs. Notre Dame’s 175th-ranked defense (71.4 PPG allowed).

Notre Dame’s Perimeter Shooting Concerns: Losing Allocco’s 46.3% three-point shooting is a major blow.

Rebounding Battle: SMU ranks 37th in total rebounds, while Notre Dame is 181st.

Why SMU Covers (-2.5)

Offensive Firepower – Even if Miller is out, SMU has enough depth to outscore Notre Dame, which is missing its best shooter.

Rebounding Edge – The Mustangs control the glass, which should lead to extra possessions.

Notre Dame’s Scoring Concerns – Without Allocco, the Irish’s offensive ceiling is much lower.

Best Bet: SMU -2.5

Projected Score: SMU 73, Notre Dame 65

The loss of Matt Allocco is too significant for Notre Dame to overcome offensively, even if SMU is without Kevin Miller. The Mustangs’ scoring efficiency, rebounding advantage, and defensive presence should allow them to control the game and cover the spread.