Week 1 College Football Betting Preview: Boise State at South Florida

Pick of the Day: Boise State (-6)

The 2025 college football season kicks off with a fascinating inter conference battle, as the 25th ranked Boise State Broncos travel to face the South Florida Bulls. While USF has the advantage of playing at home, our pick is firmly with Boise State to cover the spread. The Broncos' talent and the Bulls' defensive vulnerabilities make this a prime spot for a road cover.

Matchup Breakdown

This game is a classic Week 1 litmus test. Boise State, a perennial Group of Five powerhouse, is tasked with traveling to Florida to play a team on the rise under a new coaching staff. Despite losing star running back Ashton Jeanty to the NFL Draft, the Broncos return quarterback Maddux Madsen, who proved to be an efficient passer and leader. The Broncos' strength lies in their veteran offensive line and a stout defense that returns eight of its top tackles from last season. They are built to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

On the other side, South Florida's offense is a legitimate threat ranking 33rd Nationally in 2024. Quarterback Byrum Brown is a dynamic dual threat who can extend plays and create explosive opportunities. He's also protected by a veteran offensive line. However, the Bulls' defense remains a glaring liability. After ranking 99th nationally last season, their defense is a major question mark heading into 2025. This creates a critical mismatch that Boise State is perfectly equipped to exploit.

The Final Verdict

This game will be a battle of contrasting strengths Boise State's physicality against USF's explosiveness. However, the Broncos' advantage at the line of scrimmage, both offensively and defensively, should be too much for a weak Bulls' defense to handle. I see this game unfolding with Boise State's superior talent allowing them to control the tempo and secure a comfortable victory, a conclusion that aligns with the Bulls' poor home record against the spread last season, going just 1-4 ATS in home games last season. This is a clear spot for a road favorite to take control.

Prediction: Boise State 37, South Florida 24

The Pick: Boise State -6